El Niño 2026 and Its Impact on India’s Monsoon

El Niño years don’t always mean a bad monsoon. But this year, the odds are tilted the wrong way.

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CA0022 · Current Affairs

Southwest Monsoon, 2026

El Niño Shadow Over the Monsoon

IMD 2nd Stage Forecast

90% of LPA

Deficit Chance

60%

Kerala Onset

4 June (+3 days)

Full India Coverage

9 July (+1 day)

IOD Forecast

Neutral

El Niño Years Since 195016

Of Those, Below-Normal Monsoon7

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Key Facts

• In a written Lok Sabha reply on 5 August 2026, Dr. Jitendra Singh reconfirmed this outlook. IMD’s earlier First Stage Forecast (13 April 2026) had put rainfall at 92% of LPA (±5%), before the Second Stage revised it down to 90%. The same reply noted El Niño’s inverse link to monsoon rainfall is strongest specifically in September.
• 9 July 2026: The IMD announced the Southwest Monsoon had covered the entire country. This was one day later than its normal full-coverage date of 8 July. (Source: News On AIR)
• 8 July 2026: Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan said the Centre was intensifying El Niño preparedness. Weekly Crop Weather Watch Group meetings, with the states, are now underway. These track rainfall, reservoir storage, crop sowing, and pest and disease conditions. (Source: PIB)
• Chouhan noted June’s rainfall deficit had stood at 33%, narrowing to 24% by early July. The number of rainfall-deficient districts fell too, from 262 to 178. (Source: PIB)
• 7 July 2026: The PMO held a high-level review meeting, chaired by Principal Secretary Dr. P.K. Mishra, on El Niño’s possible impact across sectors.
• The meeting reviewed kharif-season preparedness. By 7 July, the all-India rainfall deficit had narrowed to -12%, after a slow start.
• Officials from over 15 ministries attended. The Agriculture Secretary presented updated District Agriculture Contingency Plans, covering 262 vulnerable districts.
• The Health, Water, and Power departments also presented their own preparedness measures. The PMO directed continuous monitoring through the season. (Source: PIB)
• The IMD’s Second Stage Forecast for the 2026 southwest monsoon put rainfall at 90% of the Long Period Average (LPA), with a ±4% margin. India’s LPA is 868.6 mm.
• The IMD gave this forecast a 60% chance of being deficient or below-normal.
• The Southwest Monsoon reached Kerala on 4 June 2026, three days later than its normal date of 1 June.
• The IMD predicted neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) conditions this season, limiting IOD’s usual power to offset El Niño’s effect.
• In Parliament, Dr. Jitendra Singh, Minister of State (Independent Charge) for Earth Sciences, said El Niño generally weakens the monsoon, with its exact impact depending on intensity.
• A below-normal forecast like this one is exactly what IMD’s district-level agromet advisories translate into farming decisions. See IndEco0130 — Weather-Based Agro-Advisory Services in India for how that delivery chain works.

Why It Matters

El Niño warms the central Pacific Ocean. This usually weakens India’s monsoon winds. But the link isn’t automatic. Since 1950, India has had 16 El Niño years. Only 7 of those saw below-normal monsoon rainfall. This mixed record is exactly why forecasters watch other factors too, like the IOD, closely, rather than reading El Niño alone as a guaranteed bad-monsoon signal.

Test Yourself

Please wait…

1. The IMD’s Second Stage Forecast put India’s 2026 southwest monsoon rainfall at what percentage of the Long Period Average (LPA)?

92%

90%

85%

96%

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