India’s population did not rise at a steady pace through the 20th century. It stayed almost flat for two decades, then took off.
One single year marks the exact turning point. This lesson follows the story from 1901 to Census 2027.
It explains why the pace changed, what the demographic transition model says, and why population numbers now shape a political debate.
Why did India’s population barely grow before 1921?
What made 1921 the turning point?
India’s population was 238 million in 1901. It was 252 million in 1911 and then 251 million in 1921.
So the 1911-21 decade actually lost people. Its decadal growth rate was -0.3 percent.
After 1921 the population grew in every decade. That clean break is why 1921 is called the Year of the Great Divide.
Sources: NCERT, Indian Society, Ch. 2 (Table 1).
What kept the numbers flat?
Birth rates and death rates were both high before 1921. They almost cancelled each other out.
Epidemics and famines pushed the death rate up. The worst was the influenza epidemic of 1918-19.
It killed about 5 percent of India’s population. Estimates of the death toll vary, and some are much higher.
Sources: NCERT, Indian Society, Ch. 2 (1918-19).
What changed after 1921?
Death rates began to fall sharply after the 1921-31 decade. Birth rates fell only slightly.
The main reason was better control over famines and epidemic diseases.
When deaths fall and births stay high, the population must grow. That is the engine of everything that follows.
Sources: NCERT, Indian Society, Ch. 2 (birth and death rates).
Check 1
India’s population fell in at least one decade before 1921.
What are the four phases of growth since 1901?
What happened in Phases 1 and 2?
Phase 1 (1901-1921) was the stagnant phase. Growth was tiny and the last decade was negative.
Phase 2 (1921-1951) was steady growth. Decadal growth rose from 11.0 percent in 1931 to 14.2 percent in 1941.
It then eased to 13.3 percent in 1951. Deaths were falling, but births stayed high.
Why was Phase 3 the fastest?
Phase 3 (1951-1981) was the period of rapid growth. Decadal growth jumped to 21.6 percent in 1961.
It peaked at 24.8 percent in 1971 and stood at 24.7 percent in 1981.
The reason is the widening gap between births and deaths. Death rates kept falling. Birth rates fell only a little.
India also announced an official population policy as early as 1952. It took the form of the National Family Planning Programme.
What marks Phase 4?
Phase 4 (1981 onwards) is the slowing phase. Growth is still positive, but each decade adds a smaller percentage.
Decadal growth fell to 23.9 percent in 1991. It then fell to 21.5 percent in 2001 and 17.7 percent in 2011.
The 2011 population was 1,210 million, or about 121 crore.
Sources: NCERT, Indian Society, Ch. 2 (Table 1: 1981-2011) · PIB, Census 2011 results.
How does the birth-death gap explain all four phases?
Think of two lines on a graph, one for births and one for deaths. Growth is the gap between them.
In Phase 1 the lines sat close together at a high level. In Phase 2 the death line began to dip.
In Phase 3 the death line dropped far below the birth line. In Phase 4 the birth line started to catch up.
NCERT calls this gap the rate of natural increase. When it is close to zero, the population has stabilised.
Check 2
Phase 3 (1951-81) was the fastest because birth rates rose sharply.
Why has growth been slowing since 1981?
Is India’s population shrinking?
No. A slowing growth rate is not a shrinking population.
The 2011 census added more than 181 million people between 2001 and 2011. The percentage growth was 17.64.
That decade was the first, apart from 1911-21, to add fewer people than the one before.
So India still adds people every year. It simply adds a smaller share each decade.
Sources: PIB, Census 2011 results (growth).
What pulls birth rates down?
Wider use of family planning is one clear factor. NFHS-5 shows contraceptive use rose from 54 percent to 67 percent.
Unmet need for family planning fell from 13 percent to 9 percent.
NCERT also stresses that literacy brings health awareness. Education is a tool of empowerment.
Sources: DT Next, NFHS-5 (contraception) · NCERT, Indian Society, Ch. 2.
Why does the population keep rising despite lower fertility?
This is called population momentum.
A large group of women is in the reproductive age. Even if each has fewer children, the total births stay high.
So population growth continues for a generation after fertility starts falling.
Sources: NCERT, Indian Society, Ch. 2 (momentum).
Did the big states slow down too?
Yes. Census 2011 showed lower decadal growth in the six most populous states.
Uttar Pradesh fell from 25.85 to 20.09 percent between 1991-2001 and 2001-11. Maharashtra fell from 22.73 to 15.99 percent. Bihar fell from 28.62 to 25.07 percent.
Uttar Pradesh was the most populous state, with 199.5 million people. Maharashtra followed with 112 million.
Sources: PIB, Census 2011 results (states).
Where does India stand in the demographic transition model?
What are the four stages?
The demographic transition model describes how a country’s population changes as it develops. MoSPI sets out four stages:
- Stage 1: High birth rate and many preventable deaths. The population is stable.
- Stage 2: Death rates fall because of better public health. Fertility stays high, so the population spurts.
- Stage 3: Birth rates also fall. The population still grows because many people are of reproductive age.
- Stage 4: Birth and death rates are both low. The population is stable at a higher level.
Which stage is India in?
MoSPI places India in Stage 3. Birth rates are falling, but the population still grows.
India’s own history fits the story. The turn in 1921 was the start of Stage 2, with deaths falling and births high.
Stage 2 is where the population “explosion” happens, because the gap is widest.
Stage 4 is the low stationary stage. Both rates are low and growth levels off.
Sources: MoSPI, Statistical Year Book (India) · NCERT, Indian Society, Ch. 2.
How do exams mix up Stage 2 and Stage 3?
Both stages have fast growth, so students confuse them. The difference lies in the birth rate.
In Stage 2 only the death rate has fallen. In Stage 3 the birth rate has started to fall too.
India crossed from the first into the second pattern around 1921. MoSPI now places it in the third.
Check 3
India’s total population has been falling since 1981.
Check 4
In Stage 2 of the demographic transition model, growth is rapid because death rates fall while birth rates stay high.
Check 5
In the final low stationary stage, both birth rates and death rates are low.
What is India’s fertility rate today?
Is India below the replacement level?
Yes. NFHS-5 (2019-21) put the national Total Fertility Rate at 2.0. It was 2.2 in NFHS-4.
The replacement level of fertility is 2.1 children per woman.
The survey covered about 6.37 lakh households. It gave estimates down to the district level.
Sources: DT Next, NFHS-5 (TFR).
What does TFR mean?
The Total Fertility Rate is the average number of children per woman.
It is not the birth rate. The birth rate counts live births per 1,000 people in a year.
It is also not the growth rate, which is the gap between the birth and death rates.
Sources: DT Next, NFHS-5 (TFR definition) · NCERT, Indian Society, Ch. 2.
Do all states have the same fertility?
No. A national average below 2.1 hides large differences.
Only five states were above the replacement level in NFHS-5. They were Bihar (2.98), Meghalaya (2.91), Uttar Pradesh (2.35), Jharkhand (2.26) and Manipur (2.17).
So the national figure is already low, while some states are still in an earlier stage.
Sources: DT Next, NFHS-5 (states).
Check 6
India’s fertility rate in NFHS-5 was 2.0, which is below the replacement level of 2.1.
Why does an uneven transition spark a political debate?
What is the problem?
Some states reached low fertility earlier than others. The fertility figures above show the gap.
States that slowed their growth early worry about a seat reallocation based on new counts. They fear a smaller share of seats than states that grew faster for longer.
A good result on a development goal could then carry a political cost.
Sources: DT Next, NFHS-5 (fertility gap) · PRS, Delimitation Bill 2026.
What is the seat freeze?
The 42nd Amendment (1976) froze each state’s Lok Sabha seats and Assembly seats. The freeze used the 1971 census.
The 84th Amendment (2001) extended the freeze until the first census taken after 2026.
The seat allocation among states under Article 81 follows population, which is why census numbers matter so much.
Sources: PRS, Delimitation Bill 2026 (freeze) · Article 81, Constitution.
Check 7
The uneven demographic transition between states has sparked a debate over seat allocation.
How does India count its people?
When did census-taking begin?
The British Indian government held its first censuses between 1867 and 1872. Regular ten-yearly counts have followed since 1881.
Independent India kept the practice. Seven decennial censuses have been held since 1951, the latest in 2011.
The Indian census is the largest such exercise in the world.
What is different about Census 2027?
The 2021 census was postponed because of the COVID-19 pandemic. So the ten-year cycle was broken.
The reference date for Census 2027 is 00:00 hours on 1 March 2027. For Ladakh and the snow-bound areas of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, it is 1 October 2026.
It will use mobile-based data collection for faster results.
Sources: PIB, Census 2027 note (dates) · The Tribune, Census 2027.
Will Census 2027 collect caste data?
Yes. The Cabinet Committee on Political Affairs decided on 30 April 2025 to include caste enumeration.
The approved outlay is ₹11,718.24 crore.
The first phase, the houselisting and housing census, used a question set notified in January 2026.
Sources: PIB, Census 2027 note (caste).
Check 8
India’s first censuses were held under British rule in the 1870s.
Check 9
The ten-year census cycle was broken because the 2021 round was postponed for COVID-19.
Which exam mix-up should you avoid: rate or numbers?
Which decade had the highest growth rate?
The highest decadal growth rate was 24.8 percent in 1961-71. The next decade was close behind at 24.7 percent.
That is a percentage figure. It is a different question from which decade added the most people.
A later decade starts from a larger base. It can add more people even at a lower rate.
What should you remember?
Keep five anchors:
- 1921 is the turning point, not 1911 or 1931.
- The turning point comes from deaths falling while births stay high.
- The peak growth rate is 24.8 percent in 1961-71.
- India is in Stage 3 of the four-stage model.
- NFHS-5 gives a TFR of 2.0, below the 2.1 replacement level.
Sources: NCERT, Indian Society, Ch. 2 (summary) · MoSPI, Statistical Year Book (population) · DT Next, NFHS-5.
Check 10
India’s highest decadal growth rate was in the 1961-71 decade.
How was the Total Fertility Rate tested in UPSC CSP 2024?
What did the question ask?
UPSC CSP 2024, GS Paper I, asked candidates to identify the correct definition of the Total Fertility Rate.
The answer is the average number of children per woman.
Do not confuse it with the birth rate or with the decadal growth rate. All three are different measures.
Sources: DT Next, NFHS-5 (fertility rate).
Check 11
TFR is measured as the average number of children per woman.
MCQ on Population Growth
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