At a Glance
Four numbers behind the opinion split and COP30’s outcome.
49% vs 74%
High-income concern fell to 49% in 2025. Middle-income concern about local effects hit a 74% median.
3 exceptions
Only Israel, Nigeria, and the US lack a majority calling climate change a major threat.
$1.3 trillion
The Baku to Belém Roadmap’s yearly target for developing-country climate finance by 2035.
29 decisions
The Belém Package, adopted by all 195 Parties at COP30.
In this lesson
Timeline: 2021 to the Belém Package
From 2021’s survey to COP30’s finance pledge
- 2021: in Pew’s earlier survey, 54% of adults in high-income countries call climate change their most pressing threat.
- November 2024: COP29 in Baku sets a $300 billion-a-year climate finance floor for developed countries, within a wider $1.3 trillion goal.
- 10-21 November 2025: COP30 in Belém adopts the “Belém Package,” 29 decisions including a pledge to triple adaptation finance by 2035.
- 2025: Pew’s newest survey finds high-income concern down to 49%, while middle-income countries report a 74% median saying climate change already affects them.
True or False: COP29 in Baku set a $300 billion-a-year public climate finance floor for developed countries.
COP30, and the $1.3 Trillion Roadmap
The Belém Package, and a near-universal concern
- COP30 took place in Belém, Brazil, from 10-21 November 2025. All 195 Parties adopted the Belém Package.
- Its central finance outcome is a commitment to triple adaptation finance by 2035.
- The Baku to Belém Roadmap aims to scale total climate finance for developing countries to at least $1.3 trillion a year by 2035. This builds on COP29’s $300 billion public-finance floor.
- Pew Research’s 2025 global survey found majorities in almost every country see climate change as a major threat. Only three countries were exceptions: Israel, Nigeria, and the US.
Why exactly three countries break the pattern
- Israel: about a quarter of Israelis (24%) say climate change is not a threat at all. That is the highest level of climate skepticism Pew recorded.
- The United States: about a fifth of American adults (19%) say the same. The US also shows Pew’s largest partisan gap on any global threat.
- Nigeria: Nigeria’s low concern isn’t really about disbelief. Among Nigerians who say climate change already affects their own area, 67% call it a major threat, against just 36% among those who don’t perceive local effects.
Remember: Nigeria’s concern tracks personal exposure closely. It is not a sign of disbelief, unlike Israel and the US.
True or False: Pew’s 2025 global survey found majorities in almost every surveyed country see climate change as a major threat.
True or False: Nigeria’s relatively low climate concern means most Nigerians simply don’t believe climate change is happening.
The High-Income Decline, and Middle-Income Concern
Two opposite trends, and India’s demand at COP30
- In high-income countries, the share most concerned about climate change fell from 54% in 2021 to 49% in 2025.
- Concern is rising in middle-income countries instead. A median 74% there say climate change already affects their area, with droughts and water shortages a top worry.
- A median 80% of people in middle-income countries say they’re willing to make at least some lifestyle changes to help.
- At COP30, India spoke for the BASIC and Like-Minded Developing Countries groups. It demanded developed nations honour Article 9.1 of the Paris Agreement, their legal obligation to fund developing-country climate action.
True or False: In high-income countries, climate-change concern rose from 54% in 2021 to 49% in 2025.
Why Concern and Exposure Don’t Line Up
A mismatch, and a long-running finance divide
- Concern and exposure don’t line up evenly. Wealthy countries, historically responsible for the most emissions, show falling concern. Middle-income countries, more exposed to today’s impacts, show rising concern and willingness to act.
- COP30’s real achievement was procedural, not radical. It produced a finance roadmap and a tripling pledge, not a fossil-fuel phase-out deal, which is exactly what the European Parliament’s delegation criticised it for lacking.
- India’s demand for a legal obligation, not a voluntary pledge, reflects a long-running divide. Developed nations industrialised first and emitted more historically. Developing nations argue they need finance, not just targets, to grow cleanly.
- For the science and India’s own energy-policy response to climate change, see EnvEco0002 and EnvEco0008.
True or False: The Baku to Belém Roadmap targets at least $1.3 trillion a year in climate finance for developing countries by 2035.
True or False: At COP30, India demanded developed nations treat climate finance as a voluntary pledge rather than a legal obligation.
Think it through: why does India call Article 9.1 a legal obligation, not a pledge?
Developed nations industrialised first and are historically responsible for most emissions. India and other developing nations argue they need guaranteed, obligated finance, not voluntary pledges that developed nations could scale back. Only guaranteed finance lets them grow cleanly without repeating that same emissions path.
Previous Year Questions
Two traps examiners keep returning to: what the Paris Agreement actually changed, and which COP tied fossil fuels to net zero.
- CAPF (ACs) 2017Asked which statement about the Paris Agreement is NOT correct. The answer: INDCs were “withdrawn.” They were not — once ratified, a country’s INDC automatically became its first official NDC in the UNFCCC registry.
- CDS-II 2024Asked which COP28 resolution is tied to “Net Zero by 2050.” The COP28 “UAE Consensus” links its fossil-fuel phase-out language directly to reaching net zero by 2050.
Quick Q&A
Which three countries lack majority concern about climate change?
Israel, Nigeria, and the US, per Pew’s 2025 global survey.
What is COP30’s central finance commitment?
A pledge to triple adaptation finance by 2035, part of the Belém Package.
What does the Baku to Belém Roadmap target?
At least $1.3 trillion a year in total climate finance for developing countries by 2035.
Why is Nigeria’s low concern misleading?
It tracks personal exposure, not disbelief. Nigerians who feel local effects are far more likely to call it a major threat.
What did India demand at COP30?
That developed nations honour Article 9.1 of the Paris Agreement as a legal obligation, not a voluntary pledge.
🎲 Practice: Global Opinions and Response to Climate Change
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