South Korea’s fertility rate fell below 1 child per woman in 2018. Nigeria’s sits near 4.8. The gap defines two very different demographic futures.
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Two Very Different Demographic Futures
Total fertility rate (children per woman)
South Korea0.78 — world’s lowest
Italy1.2
Japan1.4
Nigeria4.8 — among world’s highest
Replacement rate: about 2.1 children per woman is needed just to hold a population steady. Italy, Japan, and South Korea are all well below it — Nigeria and South Africa are not the ones making headlines for this.
🏛️ Must Know
Which Countries Are Ageing Fastest
- Replacement Rate A total fertility rate (TFR) of about 2.1 children per woman is needed to keep a population stable, without migration.
- Italy Italy’s TFR fell to 1.2 in 2023. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has said the country is “destined to disappear” without reversal.
- Japan Japan’s population has been ageing and shrinking for decades, with over 27% of its population aged 65 or older.
- South Korea South Korea’s TFR fell below 1 in 2018 and hit 0.78 in 2022, the lowest in the world. Its population is projected to become the most aged globally by 2045.
- Not Nigeria or South Africa Nigeria’s TFR is around 4.8, among the world’s highest, driving rapid population growth. South Africa’s is closer to replacement level, not a media fixture on ageing.
🏘️ Good to Know
Why It Matters
- Shrinking Workforce A falling working-age share strains pension systems and slows economic growth, since fewer workers support more retirees.
- Policy Responses Japan and South Korea have both rolled out childcare subsidies, parental leave expansion, and immigration reforms to counter falling birth rates, with limited success so far.
- Africa’s Contrast Nigeria’s population is projected to reach 375 million by 2050, potentially making it the world’s third most populous country, driven by its high fertility rate.
- Not Unique to East Asia Southern and Eastern Europe (Italy, Spain, and others) also post some of the world’s lowest fertility rates, showing this isn’t only an East Asian pattern.
Test Yourself
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📝 Previous Year Question
UPSC CSP 2024 — Countries With Low Birth Rates
- UPSC 2024 Italy, Japan, and South Korea are frequently cited for low birth rates, ageing, or declining population. Nigeria and South Africa are not — Nigeria in particular has one of the world’s highest fertility rates. See UPSC CSP 2024 GS Paper I, Q67.
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