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Population Ageing and Decline, at a glance
2.1 children per woman keeps a population stable; several countries sit far below it
0.78 TFR
South Korea’s 2022 fertility rate, the world’s lowest.
1.2 TFR
Italy’s 2023 fertility rate.
27%+
Share of Japan’s population aged 65 or older.
~4.8 TFR
Nigeria’s fertility rate, among the world’s highest.
Which Countries Are Ageing Fastest?
Which countries keep coming up as ageing or low-fertility, and which don’t?
- A total fertility rate (TFR) of about 2.1 children per woman is needed to keep a population stable, without migration.
- Italy’s TFR fell to 1.2 in 2023. Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has said the country is “destined to disappear” without reversal.
- Japan’s population has been ageing and shrinking for decades, with over 27% of its population aged 65 or older.
- South Korea’s TFR fell below 1 in 2018 and hit 0.78 in 2022, the lowest in the world. Its population is projected to become the most aged globally by 2045.
- Nigeria’s TFR is around 4.8, among the world’s highest, driving rapid population growth. South Africa’s is closer to replacement level, not a media fixture on ageing.
Q1. True or False: South Korea’s total fertility rate hit 0.78 in 2022, the lowest in the world.
Q2. True or False: Nigeria is frequently cited in the media for an extremely low birth rate and ageing population.
Why Does Population Ageing Matter for an Economy?
How does a shrinking working-age population actually strain a country?
- A falling working-age share strains pension systems and slows economic growth, since fewer workers support more retirees.
- Japan and South Korea have both rolled out childcare subsidies, parental leave expansion, and immigration reforms to counter falling birth rates, with limited success so far. This policy push is one reason countries have also leaned harder on migration to offset shrinking workforces.
- Nigeria’s population is projected to reach 375 million by 2050, potentially making it the world’s third most populous country, driven by its high fertility rate.
- Southern and Eastern Europe (Italy, Spain, and others) also post some of the world’s lowest fertility rates, showing this isn’t only an East Asian pattern.
Q3. True or False: A shrinking working-age population strains pension systems, since fewer workers end up supporting more retirees.
Q4. True or False: Low fertility rates are found only in East Asian countries like Japan and South Korea, not in Europe.
Think it through, before reading on. Japan and South Korea have rolled out childcare subsidies and parental leave to raise birth rates, yet their fertility rates have stayed stubbornly low. Why might policy alone struggle to reverse this trend?
Show the explanation
Fertility decisions are shaped by deep, slow-moving social and economic forces, the kind of question explored in environmental determinism versus possibilism, like housing costs, workplace culture, the cost of raising children, and shifting attitudes toward marriage and family, not just the presence or absence of a subsidy. A childcare grant can ease one cost, but it doesn’t change a demanding work culture or reverse decades of rising urban living costs, which is why even well-funded policy responses have shown only limited success so far.
Remember the trap. Italy, Japan, and South Korea are the frequent media examples for low birth rates and ageing. Nigeria and South Africa are not; Nigeria in particular has one of the world’s highest fertility rates.
Quick Q&A
What TFR is needed for a population to stay stable without migration?
About 2.1 children per woman.
Which country has the world’s lowest fertility rate?
South Korea, at 0.78 in 2022.
Why does a shrinking working-age population strain an economy?
Fewer workers end up supporting more retirees, straining pension systems and slowing growth.
Which country has one of the world’s highest fertility rates instead?
Nigeria, at around 4.8 children per woman.
- UPSC CSP 2024 — Listed Italy, Japan, Nigeria, South Korea, and South Africa, and asked which are frequently cited for low birth rates or ageing/declining population. The correct answer is Italy, Japan, and South Korea. View this paper →
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